Planning Ahead: How SNAP Changes and Tariffs Could Impact Your Business

For the past two years, we’ve talked about how inflation and higher interest rates are squeezing household budgets. Now, two recent developments—changes to SNAP benefits and increased tariffs on key food imports—are set to further tighten consumer spending, likely impacting your sales. Now is the time to prepare.

SNAP Cuts: Less Assistance for Millions

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently announced new restrictions on SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits, making it harder for some recipients to qualify (Newsweek). These changes will reduce the number of eligible participants and lower overall SNAP spending—a shift that could have major consequences for grocery retailers.

According to the USDA, over 40 million Americans rely on SNAP benefits to buy groceries each month. Lower-income households will have even less spending power if fewer people qualify, meaning grocery budgets will shrink. Independent grocers in low- to middle-income areas may feel the greatest impact, as these customers cut back on non-essential purchases and focus only on staple goods.

Tariffs and Import Restrictions: Higher Prices on Meat, Dairy, and Produce

On top of the SNAP changes, new tariffs on key agricultural imports are expected to push up prices on beef, pork, dairy, seafood, and fresh produce (Fox News). The U.S. sources a significant portion of its meat from Canada, and restrictions will likely lead to higher costs for beef and pork, as well as greenhouse-grown vegetables like tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers.
With meat prices already strained by supply issues and drought conditions, additional tariffs will further tighten supply and drive up costs for grocers and consumers alike (USDA). Seafood, particularly lobster and snow crab, may also see price hikes, especially in coastal regions where Canadian imports are common.

What Independent Grocers Can Do

With these financial pressures mounting, it’s crucial to stay informed and plan ahead:

• Plan now. Budget / forecast / cash flow plan
• Benchmark against the NGA / FMS Financial Study
  Identify shortfalls and develop action plans to improve applicable areas
• Monitor pricing trends and adjust margins carefully to remain competitive.
• Strengthen relationships with domestic suppliers to secure inventory.
• Offer value-focused promotions to help customers stretch their dollars.
• Diversify product offerings to provide alternative options for customers facing higher prices.

Independent grocers have weathered many economic shifts before, and by staying ahead of these changes, you can continue to serve your community effectively. Keep an eye on policy updates and be proactive in adjusting your business strategy to meet evolving consumer needs.